Intertemporal service pricing with strategic customers

We study a two-period intertemporal pricing game in a single-server service system with forward-looking strategic customers who make their purchase decision based on current information and anticipated future gains. Subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) prices are derived. A comparison between revenue-maximizing equilibrium prices and welfare-maximizing equilibrium prices is conducted and the impact on the system’s performance of misunderstanding customers’ type is evaluated.     

一种计算工作时间参数新方法

为了编制和优化施工进度计划,计算构成施工项目的各项工作最早开始时间、最迟开始时间、最早完成时间、最迟完成时间、总时差和自由时差等时间参数十分重要.提出了一种计算工作时间参数新方法.该方法以工作完成时间为决策变量,通过建立和求解线性规划模型来得到各种工作时间参数.其建模思路清晰,不需绘制网络图,能用通用办公软件EXCEL求解.模拟计算表明,用该方法与用标准网络计划技术计算出的工作时间参数完全一致.     

Response time and vendor–assembler relationship in a supply chain

Relationships between an assembler and a vendor in a supply chain are investigated in two-period models when the assembler wants to reduce response time by incentive systems. The assembler may offer myopic or farsighted incentive contracts to the vendor, under short-term or long-term relationships. Incentive schemes, effort levels, and expected payoffs under different perspectives and relationships are examined. We find that a farsighted assembler provides the vendor with a higher incentive than a myopic assembler in the first period. A long (short)-term relationship is preferred if the value of farsightedness under a long-term relationship is greater (less) than the switching option value under a short-term relationship. We propose several sufficient conditions regarding which perspectives and relationships are preferred.     

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts

Bennis and O’Toole [Bennis, W.G., O’Toole, J., 2005. How business schools lost their way. Harvard Business Review 83, 96–104] have recently argued that decision makers need guidance in ‘making decisions in the absence of clear facts’. As such, decision makers must be able to resourcefully use whatever limited information is available and advantageously portray its implications. Based on recently published theory which directly addresses this requirement, this paper demonstrates, through a practical example, how decision makers can make systemic decisions in situations characterized by extremely limited information and, furthermore, what form such decisions can take. Evidence is provided, therefore, that operational research can effectively address what appears to be a gap in management training.     

Testing the accuracy of employee-reported data: An inexpensive alternative approach to traditional methods

Although Information Technology (IT) solutions improve the collection and validation of operational data, Operations Managers must often rely on self-reported data from workers to make decisions. The problem with this data is that they are subject to intentional manipulation, thus reducing their suitability for decision-making. A method of identifying manipulated data, digital analysis, addresses this problem at low cost. In this paper, we demonstrate how one uses this method in real-world companies to validate self-reported data from line workers. The results of our study suggest that digital analysis estimates the accuracy of employee reported data in operations management, within limited contexts. These findings lead to improved operating performance by providing a tool for practitioners to exclude inaccurate information.     

An economic evaluation model of supply chain flexibility

With the advent of the supply chain management concepts, business communities have been realizing that being competitive as a single company is no longer adequate; instead, competitiveness requires consideration of all channels in the supply chain. Despite its importance, the availability of the literature addressing supply chain flexibility is still limited to date. Although relationships between various types of flexibilities have been established, the degree to which one type of flexibility affects the other types and the system performance remains to be investigated. In particular, there is a lack of rigorous analytical models elucidating the relationships between the degree of flexibility in a system and the system level of performance. In this paper, a supply chain flexibility model is developed comprising labor flexibility, machine flexibility, routing flexibility, and information technology, with total system flexibility measured by an economic index. Outputs from the model can assist in making suitable production decisions to produce multiple products under an uncertain environment. Example solutions are given. This paper can help economic evaluation when supply chain flexibility and the factors affecting flexibility are to be improved. It can also assist in making supply chain flexibility-promotion decisions.     

Continuous-time portfolio selection with liability: Mean–variance model and stochastic LQ approach

In this paper we formulate a continuous-time mean–variance portfolio selection model with multiple risky assets and one liability in an incomplete market. The risky assets’ prices are governed by geometric Brownian motions while the liability evolves according to a Brownian motion with drift. The correlations between the risky assets and the liability are considered. The objective is to maximize the expected terminal wealth while minimizing the variance of the terminal wealth. We derive explicitly the optimal dynamic strategy and the mean–variance efficient frontier in closed forms by using the general stochastic linear-quadratic (LQ) control technique. Several special cases are discussed and a numerical example is also given.     

若干经济数学模型的研究与应用

本文论述了近些年我们在投入产出模型、广告最优随机控制模型、最佳营销管理模型以及时间序列—马尔可夫链组合预测模型等方面所做的研究工作，同时也论及国内外在上述几方面的研究状况．     

Forecasting cancellation rates for services booking revenue management using data mining

Revenue management (RM) enhances the revenues of a company by means of demand-management decisions. An RM system must take into account the possibility that a booking may be canceled, or that a booked customer may fail to show up at the time of service (no-show). We review the Passenger Name Record data mining based cancellation rate forecasting models proposed in the literature, which mainly address the no-show case. Using a real-world dataset, we illustrate how the set of relevant variables to describe cancellation behavior is very different in different stages of the booking horizon, which not only confirms the dynamic aspect of this problem, but will also help revenue managers better understand the drivers of cancellation. Finally, we examine the performance of the state-of-the-art data mining methods when applied to Passenger Name Record based cancellation rate forecasting.     

A rule for slack allocation proportional to the duration in a PERT network

In this paper, we define a new rule for the resolution of the slack allocation problem in a PERT network. This problem exists of allocating existing extra time in some paths among the activities belonging to those paths. The allocation rule that we propose assigns extra time to the activities proportionally to their durations in such a way that no path duration exceeds the completion time of the whole project. This time allocation enables us to make a schedule for the PERT project under study. We give two characterizations of the rule and we compare it with others that have been previously defined in the literature.